12 Jul · 06:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1515
FormLWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lazebny
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1450
FormWLLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Smyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 66% (89)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H27-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-16)