12 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1497
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stetsenko
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1486
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stetsenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 29% · 3.41· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.