12 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VD
🇺🇦Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi
ELO 1520
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Savenkov
OS
🇺🇦Oleh Savenkov
ELO 1554
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Dobrovolskyi stays under total as underdog 68% (87)
Fair odds · Savenkov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~71 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H17-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.