13 Jul · 09:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1432
FormWWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Honcharenko
DN
🇺🇦Dmytro Novik
ELO 1349
FormWWWLL
59%
41%
🌟Novik stays under total as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Honcharenko
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H23-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-9)