13 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1420
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Novakov
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1430
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Novakov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (36)
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.