13 Jul · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YV
🇺🇦Yaroslav Vorsuliak
ELO 1476
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Shchegelskyi
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1505
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorsuliak🌟Shchegelskyi rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (47)
Fair odds · Shchegelskyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H30-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.