13 Jul · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IE
🇺🇦Ihor Emets
ELO 1553
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1591
FormLLWWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Emets
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H29-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.