13 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Miroslav Vana
ELO 1495
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vana
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1457
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Plyska🌟Vana rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (27)
Fair odds · Vana
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H13-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.