13 Jul · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MV
🇺🇦Miroslav Vana
ELO 1495
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vana
JH
🇺🇦Josef Hanacek
ELO 1447
FormLWWLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hanacek🌟Vana rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (27)
Fair odds · Vana
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)