13 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1514
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kovalchuk
YV
🇺🇦Yaroslav Vorsuliak
ELO 1476
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🌟Vorsuliak covers set handicap as underdog 72% (76)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H19-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.