13 Jul · 07:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1514
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kovalchuk
RN
🇺🇦Ruslan Novak
ELO 1509
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H16-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.