13 Jul · 11:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VI
🇺🇦Volodymyr Ivasiv
ELO 1466
FormLLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Novak
RN
🇺🇦Ruslan Novak
ELO 1509
FormWWWLL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ivasiv🌟Ivasiv covers set handicap as underdog 65% (77)
Fair odds · Novak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~72 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H50-35
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (50-35)