13 Jul · 11:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1554
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Schmidtmayer
JJ
🇺🇦Jachym Juppa
ELO 1530
FormWWLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Schmidtmayer
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H19-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.