13 Jul · 11:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇺🇦Anatolii Kovalenko
ELO 1423
FormLWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Mytsyk
OM
🇺🇦Oleksandr Mytsyk
ELO 1426
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
🌟Kovalenko stays under total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Mytsyk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H8-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.