13 Jul · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Regush
ELO 1560
FormLWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Regush
YV
🇺🇦Yaroslav Vorsuliak
ELO 1476
FormWLLWL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorsuliak🌟Vorsuliak covers set handicap as underdog 72% (76)
Fair odds · Regush
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+84
H2H16-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-9)