14 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇺🇦Jan Rochowanski
ELO 1547
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rochowanski
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1538
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Rochowanski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.