14 Jul · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AO
🇺🇦Andrii Obishchenko
ELO 1543
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kovshun
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1564
FormLLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~72 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H10-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.