14 Jul · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AZ
🇺🇦Andrii Zeniuk
ELO 1696
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pesternikov
DP
🇺🇦Denys Pesternikov
ELO 1736
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
🌟Zeniuk covers set handicap as underdog 62% (29)
Fair odds · Pesternikov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H39-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.