14 Jul · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇺🇦Mykola Pohorilyi
ELO 1507
FormWWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pohorilyi
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1419
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
🌟Matviichuk stays under total as underdog 76% (41)
Fair odds · Pohorilyi
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H18-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-15)