14 Jul · 07:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YV
🇺🇦Yurii Volkov
ELO 1620
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Volkov
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1564
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovshun🌟Kovshun covers set handicap as underdog 70% (54)
Fair odds · Volkov
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H42-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-26)