14 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1529
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1555
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolesnykov🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 69% (54)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H21-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.