14 Jul · 10:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1578
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Derevianko
IN
🇺🇦Ivan Nitchenko
ELO 1554
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
🌟Nitchenko stays under total as underdog 65% (34)
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H8-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.