14 Jul · 07:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1578
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Derevianko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Strutinskiy
ELO 1564
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H39-49
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.