14 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1575
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stibor
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1538
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Stibor rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (38)
Fair odds · Stibor
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H22-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.