14 Jul · 09:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1578
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1587
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Derevianko🌟Derevianko covers set handicap as underdog 63% (137)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H58-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.