14 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1428
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Puk
JH
🇺🇦Josef Hanacek
ELO 1412
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hanacek🌟Puk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (16)
Fair odds · Puk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.