14 Jul · 11:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇺🇦Michael Hasman
ELO 1465
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hasman
MM
🇺🇦Marian Melisek
ELO 1433
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
🌟Melisek covers set handicap as underdog 63% (57)
Fair odds · Hasman
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.