14 Jul · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1428
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Plyska
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1459
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Puk🌟Plyska rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (53)
Fair odds · Plyska
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H23-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.