14 Jul · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1428
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Puk
FK
🇺🇦Filip Kubos
ELO 1391
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🌟Puk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (16)
Fair odds · Puk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H0-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.