16 Jul · 05:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1461
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lazebny
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1493
FormLLWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mitla🌟Lazebny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (118)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H27-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.