15 Jul · 12:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇺🇦Petr Semrad
ELO 1517
FormLLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Smazik
LS
🇺🇦Libor Smazik
ELO 1518
FormLWWWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smazik🌟Smazik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (52)
Fair odds · Smazik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H25-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.