15 Jul · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
HO
🇺🇦Hryhoriy Oliynyk
ELO 1488
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oliynyk
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kryvoshyi
ELO 1476
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Oliynyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H3-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.