15 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Prus
ELO 1512
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fashchevskyi
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1524
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Prus🌟Prus covers set handicap as underdog 78% (41)
Fair odds · Fashchevskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H19-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.