15 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Ponomarenko
ELO 1447
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ponomarenko
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Miroshnychenko
ELO 1431
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.