15 Jul · 07:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SY
🇺🇦Stefan Yakimenko
ELO 1512
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kurtenko
AK
🇺🇦Andrii Kurtenko
ELO 1523
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Yakimenko covers set handicap as underdog 63% (103)
Fair odds · Kurtenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H23-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.