15 Jul · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1577
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Maltsev
YT
🇺🇦Yaroslav Tebenko
ELO 1539
FormLWWWW
54%
46%
🌟Tebenko covers set handicap as underdog 66% (83)
Fair odds · Maltsev
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H29-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.