15 Jul · 11:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Balabei
ELO 1701
FormWLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Horokh
RH
🇺🇦Roman Horokh
ELO 1756
FormLLWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Horokh
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H144-82
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (144-82)