15 Jul · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇺🇦Martin Melisek
ELO 1572
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Melisek
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1564
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 72% (36)
Fair odds · Melisek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.