15 Jul · 17:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TG
🇺🇦Taras Gil
ELO 1576
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gil
VH
🇺🇦Volodymyr Hrybeniuk
ELO 1550
FormWLLWL
53%
47%
🌟Hrybeniuk stays under total as underdog 63% (49)
Fair odds · Gil
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.