15 Jul · 19:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LS
🇺🇦Lukas Svoboda
ELO 1530
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sr
JS
🇺🇦Jan Krames Sr
ELO 1599
FormWWWLL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Svoboda🌟Svoboda covers set handicap as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Sr
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H10-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-9)