16 Jul · 09:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IF
🇺🇦Illia Fokin
ELO 1441
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fokin
AN
🇺🇦Anatolii Nikolenko
ELO 1409
FormWWLWL
53%
47%
🌟Fokin rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (39)
Fair odds · Fokin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H12-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.