16 Jul · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇺🇦Michael Hasman
ELO 1460
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hasman
TS
🇺🇦Tomas Stejskal
ELO 1448
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Hasman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~72 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.