16 Jul · 07:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1658
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Maksymiv
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1578
FormLLLWL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sukovatyi
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+80
H2H22-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)