16 Jul · 11:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1658
FormLWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Maksymiv
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Romanenko
ELO 1573
FormWLWLW
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romanenko🌟Romanenko covers set handicap as underdog 71% (56)
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H15-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-14)