16 Jul · 10:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇺🇦Mykhailo Khalenko
ELO 1444
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Khalenko
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1434
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Khalenko stays under total as favourite 78% (23)
Fair odds · Khalenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.