16 Jul · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Romanenko
ELO 1573
FormWLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Pohonov
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1628
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romanenko🌟Romanenko covers set handicap as underdog 71% (56)
Fair odds · Pohonov
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H30-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-14)