16 Jul · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1487
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kurylenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Kurylenko
ELO 1516
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kurylenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H33-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.