16 Jul · 07:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kovalenko
ELO 1430
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Novakov
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1434
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Novakov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (37)
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.