17 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YV
🇺🇦Yurii Volkov
ELO 1601
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Volkov
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1586
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kovshun🌟Kovshun covers set handicap as underdog 71% (55)
Fair odds · Volkov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H42-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.