17 Jul · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1565
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Karpenko
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1542
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H9-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.